US retail sales overview
Monday's US economic docket highlights the key release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 1230 GMT. Consensus estimates point to a solid 0.5% m/m rise in September as against a modest 0.1% m/m growth recorded in the previous month.
Meanwhile, core retail sales (excluding automobiles), which advanced 0.3% in August, are projected to have grown by 0.3% on a monthly basis and the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is seen expanding by 0.4% m/m during the reported period.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. In the last five releases, the EUR/USD pair moved, on an average, 30-pips in the 15-minutes after the data release and 52-pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
A lower than expected reading would mark the second consecutive month of disappointment and keep exerting some additional downward pressure on the already weaker US Dollar. The anti-dollar flow might now assist the pair to finally break through the 100-day SMA barrier, currently near the 1.1615 region and aim towards testing the 1.1655-60 supply zone.
Alternatively, a stronger print should provide some immediate respite for the USD bulls, with the pair more likely to slide back towards testing the 1.1540-35 horizontal support. A follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair below the key 1.1500 psychological mark and pave the way for additional intraday weakness.
• US Retail Sales preview: tepid but constant growth
• EUR/USD Forecast: upward momentum limited by political woes
• EUR/USD stronger, approaches 1.1600 ahead of US data
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).