TALKING POINTS – EURO, POUND, PMI, US DOLLAR, TRADE WARS, EMERGING MARKETS
- European PMI data may boost Pound but Euro likely to look elsewhere
- US Dollar aims extend advance as haven demand holds in risk-off trade
- Australian Dollar unable to sustain upswing after upbeat Q2 GDP data
The economic calendar in relatively muted in European trading hours. A steady stream of Euro Area PMI surveys seems unlikely to mean much for the Euro considering the ECB is essentially on autopilot through year-end. Higher UK services and composite PMIs might be somewhat supportive for British Pound however after BOE Governor Carney said rate hikes may happen even in a “no-deal” Brexit scenario.
In the absence of a strong lead from data flow, sentiment trends might remain at the forefront. Futures tracking the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 equities benchmarks are pointing lower before London and New York come online. This hints that the collective force of headwinds from trade war and emerging market instability fears may continue to drive haven demand for the US Dollar.
The Australian Dollar edged higher following impressively strong second-quarter GDP data. The lion’s share of intraday gains fizzled as quickly as they appeared however, which may reflect the markets’ realization of its limited implications for near-term RBA rate hike prospects. The central bank is not expected to deliver tightening at least until the second half of 2019.
See our study on the history of trade wars to learn how it might influence financial markets!
ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION
EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION
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