5-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (top), S&P 500
This chart overlays the S&P 500 and the yield on the 5-year note over the past 25 years.
When yields hit falling resistance in 2000 and 2007, they fell hard and stocks did too (50% S&P 500 declines).
Yields hit 20-year falling resistance a couple of months ago at (1) and they are turning lower and stocks are following along.
The current pattern in stocks and yields looks to be repeating the 2000 and 2007 patterns.
Will the results be different this time?