The US Dollar further declined against other major currencies, with the US Dollar Index (USDX) trading on Friday at its lowest point in more than two months. The decline in Dollar value was attributed mostly to a weaker US CPI than expected and possibly reduced trade tensions between the US and China.
Not only the Turkish Lira (TRY) traded higher following the announcement that the Turkish Central Bank would increase interest rates to 24%. Other emerging market currencies like the South African Rand (ZAR) or the Mexican Peso (MXN) also improved against the Dollar.
While gold prices benefitted from the weaker Dollar, upwards momentum was limited after US president Trump remarked that the US “was under no pressure to make a deal with China.” Crude oil contracts traded lower on Thursday, after the IEA data indicated a steep rise in oil production in OPEC countries.
Equity indices traded higher on Friday morning, supported by gains in Asia and in particular China, as Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales were stronger than anticipated.
Cryptocurrencies continued their recovery, with Ethereum gaining over 13% within 24 hours, recovering all of its losses from this week. The recent fall in Ethereum value was attributed to a significant amount to the sale of Ethereum tokens by ICO projects. Research from TrustNodes indicated that over the previous ten days 160,000 Ethereum tokens were sold by such projects.
On Friday Italy, Israel and Sweden will release its CPI data, followed by the European Union with its Merchandise Trade and Labour Cost statistics. From the US Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment data is expected.
The Euro gained for the fourth consecutive day in a row, while touching the 1.17 level. The weaker Dollar, which analysts attribute to the somewhat subsiding concerns about the impact of the trade conflict with China, allowed many currencies to gain against the Dollar on Thursday.
The European Central Bank (ECB) meanwhile maintained at their policy meeting on Thursday that it would leave its monetary policy unchanged for now and changes can be expected no earlier than in summer of 2019. The ECB also expects to end its quantitative easing program as scheduled by the end of this year.
German and French Consumer Price Index (CPI) data confirmed the stability of the market as inflation was as expected in August at 2% y/y in Germany and at 2.3% y/y in France.
On Friday Italy publishes its CPI data, followed by European data on Merchandise Trade.
Pivot:1.1665Support:1.16651.16451.161Resistance:1.17151.17351.175Scenario 1:long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1715 & 1.1735 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1645 & 1.1610 as targets.Comment:the RSI shows upside momentum.
The Turkish Lira recovered to its highest value against the Dollar in more than 2 weeks, following the announcement by Turkish Central Bank that it would increase interest rates to 24%, an increase by 625 basis points. The USD/TRY fell close to 6.0 following this announcements, as even most analysts were surprised by such a swift move, given the strong opposition of Turkish president Erdogan towards higher interest rates.
Earlier it was announced that Turkey would seek to establish the Lira as the only acceptable currency between Turkish entities in order to reduce dependency on foreign currencies.
On Friday the Turkish Current Account data for July will be published. The Current Account deficit in June amounted to almost $3 bn.
Pivot:6.19Support:6.0656.0015.954Resistance:6.196.2466.33Scenario 1:short positions below 6.1900 with targets at 6.0650 & 6.0010 in extension.Scenario 2:above 6.1900 look for further upside with 6.2460 & 6.3300 as targets.Comment:as long as the resistance at 6.1900 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 6.0650 remains high.
Oil traded significantly lower on Thursday, after the International Energy Agency (IEA) published data showing that crude oil production from OPEC countries jumped by 420,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, the biggest rise in more than two years. However the IEA also cautioned in its report that the falling output from Venezuela and Iran could tighten global supplies.
Meanwhile Reuters reported that the Chinese oil production showed an increase for the first time in almost three years, reaching 3.77 million bpd.
On Friday the US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count will be released, indicating the number of operating oil rigs in the US. Over the last 3-1/2 months the number of operating oil rigs remained steady in the range of 858 to 869.
WTI Oil Chart
Pivot:69.3Support:68.356868.35Resistance:69.369.7570.15Scenario 1:short positions below 69.30 with targets at 68.35 & 68.00 in extension.Scenario 2:above 69.30 look for further upside with 69.75 & 70.15 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed to bearish. The prices are trading around the 20-period moving average. Also, lower tops and lower bottoms are observed on the 30-minute chart.
US equity indices closed overall higher, with analysts pointing to lower inflation numbers than expected with the CPI at +2.7% y/y (expected +2.8%), which reduced concerns that the Federal Reserve could be tempted to increase the pace of its rate hikes.
Bank stocks were again some of the weakest performing values (US Banks ETF -1.09%) in the market, while health care (US Health Care ETF +1.14%) and chip (US Semiconductors ETF +1.13%) stocks outperformed the market.
Apple’s (+2.59%) rising share price also helped push overall averages up, despite analysts from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reducing the estimated Earnings per Share for next year.
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) (+3.92%) shares surged higher, after the company confirmed its accelerated $16 bn. share buyback program.
On Friday multiple important economic indicators will be published, such as Import/Export Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment level.
US 500 Chart
Pivot: 2900 Support: 2900 2890 2884.5 Resistance: 2916.5 2922 2931 Scenario 1: long positions above 2900.00 with targets at 2916.50 & 2922.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2900.00 look for further downside with 2890.00 & 2884.50 as targets. Comment: the break above the resistance at 2900.00 triggered an upward acceleration to 2916.50. The index prices are supported by a rising trend line and the rising 50-period moving average.