GBP Traders Groan on Brexit Delay – EUR/USD Eyeing Local Event-Risk

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TALKING POINTS – BREXIT, US SENTIMENT SURVEY, EUROZONE CPI

  • House of Commons voted Brexit extension
  • US Dollar waiting for key sentiment data
  • EUR/USD will be watching Eurozone CPI

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GBP has had a very volatile week following major Brexit-related developments. Let’s do a quick re-cap:

March 12 – Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is voted down and GBP fell.

March 13 – A vote on a no-deal outcome is held and passes – the Pound rose.

March 14 – Lawmakers voted to extend the March 29 Brexit deadline – Sterling closed lower and traders groaned from the prospect of continued uncertainty

The EU stated that an extension can be granted if the UK is able to adequately justify a reason to do so and would require the unanimous consent of all 27 EU member states. Policymakers from both sides are beginning to lose their patience and are showing clear signs of exhaustion. The ball is now in the EU’s court, though they too have too trod carefully lest they lose more political clout during a time Brussels desperately needs it.

The Swiss Franc continues to outperform against the Euro and Pound as regional uncertainty continues to stir haven demand. Traders’ preference for CHF in this regard vs the Japanese Yen or US Dollar may be due to the Franc’s proximity to the European-based event risk. To read more about upcoming EU developments and their effect on European assets, you may follow me on Twitter at ZabelinDimitri.

In the EU, Eurozone CPI will be published and may push the Euro lower if the data underperforms. Regional growth trends suggest a tilt toward underperformance is more likely than not. This comes amid fresh new fears of an EU-US trade conflict following a failed meeting between trade representatives from each side last week. This would apply downward pressure on EUR/USD right as it approaches a key resistance barrier.

Adding to the EU docket, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will be giving a speech on a national holiday and could reveal some of his plans for the upcoming European Parliamentary election in the spring. EU officials are beginning to bite their nails as Eurosceptic parties gain ground in Europe while popularity for Europhile liberals wane. Click on the link to learn more about the effect of Eurozone political risk on the Euro.

On the other side of the Atlantic, US sentiment data from the University of Michigan is scheduled to be released which will provide insight on how consumers feel about the economic outlook. Forecasts are currently pegged at 95.7 with the report in January hitting the lowest point since November 2016. This proceeded the government shutdown which trimmed GDP growth and impacted the Fed’s outlook for monetary policy.

CHART OF THE DAY: 2-YEAR UK GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS, CHF/EUR

GBP Traders Groan on Brexit Delay - EUR/USD Eyeing Local Event-Risk

Note: Euro-Franc crosses are typically quoted as EUR/CHF.

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