- The pair navigates session peaks in the 1.1330 region.
- German IFO Business Climate dropped further in January.
- ECB now sees GDP expanding 1.5% in 2019.
The generalized upbeat mood in the risk-associated universe is now pushing EUR/USD to the upper end of the daily range in the 1.1330 region.
EUR/USD bid post-IFO, ECB
The positive performance of the pair remains well and sound within the daily recovery and following yesterday’s drop to fresh 2019 lows in the 1.1290/85 band in the wake of the ECB event.
The better mood surrounding the riskier assets is helping spot to sustain the recovery to levels above 1.1300 the figure.
In addition, EUR seems unfazed by the results from the German IFO for the current month, where the more relevant Business Climate ticked lower to 99.1, Expectations came in at 94.2 and Current Assessment at 104.3.
Also on the not-so-bright side, the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters now sees the GDP in the region expanding 1.5% (from 1.8%) in 2019 and inflation rising at an annualized 1.5% (from 1.7%) during the same period.
What to look for around EUR/USD
Thursday’s revision lower in risks facing the economic outlook in the region will surely increase the relevance of upcoming data, all under the close scrutiny of the ECB. In addition, concerns over the US-China trade deal and the potential slowdown in the global economy remain key drivers for investors’ sentiment in the next months. On the political side, the upcoming EU parliamentary elections in May should start picking up some attention in the near term, while the social scenario in France and developments from the populist government in Italy should also add to the prevailing cautiousness among market participants.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.20% at 1.1327 facing the next hurdle at 1.1356 (23.6% Fibo of the September-November drop) seconded by 1.1375 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1410 (10-day SMA). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1289 (2019 low Jan.24) would target 1.1269 (monthly low Dec.14 2018) en route to 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12).