AUD/USD Technical Strategy: NET SHORT AT 0.7456
- Australian Dollar retesting nine-month downtrend resistance
- Near-term positioning hints bearish resumption likely ahead
- Short AUD/USD trade still in play, October low first in focus
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The Australian Dollar has tepidly recovered to challenge trend resistance guiding it lower against its US counterpart since late January. That barrier is now in the 0.7136-0.7210 area. A daily close above that would neutralize the near-term bearish bias and initially expose the September’s swing highs in the 0.7304-15 zone.
Alternatively, a turn back below the October 8 low at 0.7041 sees the next significant barrier at 0.6900, the September 2015 bottom. That is closely followed by the January 2016 trough at 0.6827.
Shorter-term positioning favors the latter scenario. The four-hour chart reveals the appearance of negative RSI divergence on a test of inflection point resistance, hinting at ebbing upside momentum that might precede reversal. Confirmation on a break of counter-trend support is still pending however.
With that in mind, the short AUD/USD trade that was triggered at 0.7608 and subsequently scaled up – first near 0.7530, then at 0.7325 and most recently at 0.7205 – remains in play. The overall cost basis is 0.7456. A stop-loss will be triggered on a dictionary basis.
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